Kurz angemerkt: Ifo-Chef Hans-Werner Sinn spricht mit der FAZ über Kosten der Flüchtlingskrise

Sinn geht bei einer Anzahl von 1,1 Mio. Asylbewerbern von Kosten von etwa 21,2 Mrd. € pro Jahr aus. Hiervon sollen allein für Schulen, Polizei und Verwaltung 10 Mrd. € notwendig sein.

Leider erläutert der Artikel in der FAZ.NET vom 12.11.2015 nicht wie sich diese Zahlen genau zusammensetzen. Vorstellbar ist, dass anteilige Kosten für die Schule oder die Verwaltung migrationsbedingt etwas höher ausfallen können. So werden Deutsch- und Integrationskurse notwendig. Zusätzliche Verwaltungsaufgaben entstehen durch die Bearbeitung der Asylanträge. Weitere zusätzliche Kosten entstehen, die auf andere Bürger nicht entfallen.

Rechnet man die Kosten für Schule, Polizei und Verwaltung auf alle Bürger hoch, ergäben sich Ausgaben, in diesem Bereich, von etwa 750 Mrd. € im Jahr, die derzeit, ohne die Hinzurechnung von Asylbewerbern, aufzubringen währen. Betrachtet man hierzu die Ausgaben des öffentlichen Gesamthaushaltes von 2010 (veröffentlicht von der Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung), stellt man fest, dass die tatsächlichen Kosten deutlich geringer sind.

Hier ist für die „allgemeinen Dienste“, diese beinhalten u.a. Kosten für die Polizei und die Verwaltung, etwa 133 Mrd. € ausgewiesen. Hierin ist aber z.B. auch der Verteidigungshaushalt enthalten, der unabhängig von der Bevölkerungsgröße ist. Ausgaben für Schulen sind im Punkt „Bildung, Wissenschaft, Forschung und Kultur“ aufgeführt. Die Summe beläuft sich hier auf etwa 111 Mrd. €. Ausgaben für Schulen sind auch hier wieder nur ein Teil der Gesamtsumme.

Ist es denkbar, dass Asylbewerber in den Punkten Schule, Polizei, Verwaltung so viel mehr Kosten verursachen als Nicht- Asylbewerber?

Interessant ist, dass der Sachverständigenrat der Bundesregierung die Gesamtkosten für Asylbewerber (hier wird von einer Mio. ausgegangen) mit lediglich 8,3 Mrd. € angibt. D.h. es wird nur von 43%, im Vergleich zu den Zahlen von Hans Werner Sinn, ausgegangen. Auch das Ifo- Institut selber scheint in der Vergangenheit mit geringere Summen gerechnet zu haben. So wurde noch im September davon gesprochen, dass der zu erwartende Mehraufwand aus den Steuermehreinnahmen finanziert werden könne (Ungeplante Haushaltsüberschüsse für Flüchtlinge nutzen).

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